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Thread: The Wave of the Future and the End of an Era

  1. #1

    Default The Wave of the Future and the End of an Era

    Everything changes. The sun rises and sets, the earth rotates; people get older, language morphs, and technology advances. Everything undergoes a continuous flow of change and nothing can prevent that.

    In most cases, change is welcomed however in various parts of business; change is frequently met with distrust and dislike. Big Business builds its life around profit, and anything that might cut into that profit is met with intense hatred.

    Yet try as Big Business might, there are changes coming that it can not prevent. Those changes have already hit the recording industry and record labels are now finding that they no longer have a strangle hold on the dollars to be made from various artists. They are trying to retain that hold. They are mounting lawsuits left and right, yet more and more artists have discovered that they can sell their music online, directly to their fans, and keep the profits for themselves rather than lining some rich mans pocket. At first just a trickle of artists no one knew were gravitating to the online venue. Now it is a flood of all sorts of artists, big name and unknown. Record labels must either change or die. Most are going to die. Tower records, one of the main players has just declared bankruptcy, and cites online sales as a major reason for its collapse. Online sales that it was too slow to capitalize on.

    The same changes are due for all other aspects of media. Television players such as CBS are now making their shows available online, on demand, the day after they air. Movie trailers from big movie houses are showing up on google video and youtube. The same thing is now happening to print media.

    Today’s consumer wants everything on demand. Right now, exactly the way they require it. Because it is possible to provide them with this online, today’s consumer is doing more shopping online and less with brick and mortar stores.

    Magazines saw this coming several years ago and dove into the online format happily, with E-zines flooding the net. Newspapers are fighting it, and those that are not adapting are going under. Now books are headed that way as well.

    Today’s reader doesn’t mind a printed copy of the book, but he or she is busy. Too busy to go to a book store. A five minute login session to Amazon.com works just as well. Most of those readers also have a PDA or other hand-held device and frequently those readers prefer an E-book over a printed book if the option is available. There is a battle shaping up in the print industry which will have only one winner. Those publishers and authors who are too stuck in the past to see the wave of the future will die the same death as Tower Records. Already it is possible to drive around an entire town and not find a book store. Even in major metropolitan areas book stores are a vanishing item, and those that still exist tend to be the large conglomerate types, located near a university and partnered with a Starbucks.

    In order to survive in this changing world, resellers must develop an online presence and publishers must move to print on demand. Distributes such as Ingram have discovered that they no longer need to maintain a huge stock of printed volumes. They can take orders from their resellers and then request just the exact number of copies of a book that they want. Publishers who refuse to make this available to distributors, and authors who refuse to play the game, will find that there are plenty of others out there to take their place. Ingram removed the lightning bolt emblem that used to adorn their print on demand books, making it impossible for anyone to tell which came from a traditional publisher and which came from a more progressive one, or even from a totally self-published author.

    Add to this the fact that readers don't, as a rule, care who published a book. All they care about is that the content in it servers their needs. Its informative, its entertaining, its easy to understand, its well written. When self-publishing first got started, the only authors involved were those that wrote poorly, didn’t edit their work and couldn't find any traditional houses who wished to spend a couple thousand dollars on garbage. However, that stigma is rapidly fading. As more professional authors discover that today’s reader is an online personality and that they can sell their books directly to them instead of settling for the dips of profit that the traditional houses dole out, they are also entering the self-publishing field. Their work shines. Its written well, edited better and calls loudly to the reading public. Some professional authors are choosing to stay with the traditional houses, turning their nose up at the rest, but they, like the traditional houses will soon find that no one is interested in them any more... because their books are not available as readily to the reading public as they could be.

    Unfortunately, traditional publishing houses are just like any other Big Business. Unwilling to change. They like the strangle hold they have had for so long, being able to pick and choose what goes into print, lining their pockets with most of the profits. The good news for authors is the same as it is for record artists. The readers who will want their books don’t care what publishing company the material came from, and are just as happy to buy it directly from the author as from someone else. Authors can upload their work to Amazon without the need of a middle man, and there are a number of good publishing companies who do not do things in the traditional manner to choose from now, with more coming on the scene daily.

    Never meddle in the affairs of a wizard unless you are soggy and hard to light!
    Last edited by crystalwizard; May 24, 2010 @ at 1:57 PM.

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    Crystal Wizard,
    Its not quite that simple. The POD press and internet distribution doesn't just cut out the evil capitalist exploiter of the writer?s labor, it also tries to cut out all the services provided by the publisher to the author. The only authors who can do without the publicity a publisher can provide are the ones who have all ready benefited from it, and damn few writers of any stripe can do without the services of an editor. I've done enough time as a first reader to a few top-name writers to ever believe otherwise.

    The entire publisher-writer arraignment is designed to share the risks and labor of creating a successful book. The risks may be mostly financial-- offset printing and distribution-- and technology may be reducing them, but that is not the publisher?s only contribution to the finished work. Editing, book design, cover art, blurbs, review placement, promotional event co-ordination and even press conferences, promotional copies, proofreading (and if you think this is editing, you are wrong), and many other services, expensive, time consuming services that are beyond the reach of most writers and which would cost far more in time than many writers want to spend even if they could afford the cost are provided by publishers to their writers. Not evenly and not universally, but the real difference between most POD products, (not all POD products, but most) and what the major publishers put out is the quality missing from all these other things.

    As to adapting to new technologies, well some publishers are doing so. The industry as a whole may be lagging and DRM and its stupidities have crept over from the music industry but at least one publisher has leaped in with both feet. Baen Books offers most of its catalog and new offerings via e-books, and has for many years. While they have made a nice profit-- and pay their authors a very nice royalty on this, much higher than the standard print royalty-- I've not noticed customers by the hundreds of thousands knocking down their doors. Truth is most people still want paper, whether they can and will go to a bookstore to get it or not, and not electronic. I don't know a thing about your circumstances or lifestyle, but believe it or not there are tens and hundreds of millions of literate people today who do not own palm-pilots or similar hand-held electronic reading devices, and never will. Though Baen offers all its books electronically and has for years, they've never sold more than a small fraction of the number of print copies in electronic copies. Even their huge _free_ library serves mostly to generate sales, even though people can download the books for free, inclusion in the library has always meant more hardcopy sales. Most people do not want to read their books electronically, and there is a good chance most will never be able to do so anyway.

    Mike

    Michael D. Turner
    'Psyched Up' in _Turn the other Chick_-ed. E. Friesner-Baen books
    www.baen.com
    'Dutchman Rescue'in Continuum SF #6
    www.continuumsciencefiction.com/orders.htm

    'An Incident at Black Tongue Tavern' in _Bash Down the Door and Slice Open the Badguy_ from Fantasist Enterprises:
    www.fantasistent.com/books/anthologies/BASH.php

  3. #3

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    I think the quality issue on POD books is a mixed bag, from excellent to not-too-good. For example, Lightning Source and Book Surge quality is as good as any tpb I've ever bought. As for cover, that's up to the writer and whoever he/she wishes to enlist. I've found some pretty good artists who are willing to produce excellent quality covers for as little as $300 USD. Editing and Proof Reading (not the same) same story. You can find reliable people on the web that do a pretty good job for a few hundred dollars. And I suspect as more writers launch successful book efforts free enterprise will show its narly head and fill the need at a reasonable price, not to mention writer's groups and small online publishers.


    In terms of promo etc., institutions such as Bookwire, PRweb,and Kirkus are starting tosell authors services to promote their books. There are many print and online entities that will do reviews of a book dependent on its quality. I think an author making a successful book campaign will become less rare.


    The institutions most resistent are bookstores (signings), radio shows, etc. It is very difficult for an author selfpublishing or a small publisher to get the kind of publicity they need to really take off, though I don't think it's impossible, it takes a lot of work.


    E-books, I agree, for some reason are a hard sell. Withsome outlets forgoing DRM, and the fact that many people have light, high quality laptops with long-life batteries, you'd think e-books would be more popular--they're not. I have no idea why.






    http://www.speculativefictionreview.com

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    As I print out most things I'm going to seriously read, like a chapter I'm to critique for a writing group or a story submitted to me for consideration, I understand why e-books are not as popular as many think they ought to be. If you consider first the segment (ever shrinking, we're told) of the population that buys and reads books, then take the number of people who own portable reading devices, such as the aformentioned lap-tops. Assuming a similar porportion of readers in the second group as in the first. You are now talking about a very small number as compared to the total number of readers. Further subtrack the number of device owners who, like myself, dislike reading for pleasure over their device, or who for tax or buisness reasons can not use their device for pleasure reading. A small percentage but its coming out of the smallest group I've mentioned. Now add in the rediculous restrictions the DRM issue adds, with many publishers you may have trouble getting a copy that works on your platform, or having bought a copy that should work on your platform, other problems may occur. I know many people who've had a bad experience with DRM protected works not opening, not opening after so many viewings, not being able to transfer a work purchased to a new device, and all many of other problems. A high percentage of these people either quit buying e-books or restricted who they buy them from. Reducing the pool of potential customers again.

    What's left gets divided between all e-books of any kind. The numbers, compared to all readers of traditional print works, are tiny. Add in the lack of impulse buying oppportunities, retail opportunities, no 'cover' advertizing etc, and E-books are lucky to do as well as they are.
    Mike

    Michael D. Turner
    'Psyched Up' in _Turn the other Chick_-ed. E. Friesner-Baen books
    www.baen.com
    'Dutchman Rescue'in Continuum SF #6
    www.continuumsciencefiction.com/orders.htm

    'An Incident at Black Tongue Tavern' in _Bash Down the Door and Slice Open the Badguy_ from Fantasist Enterprises:
    www.fantasistent.com/books/anthologies/BASH.php

  5. #5

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    I agree with you on DRM--bad idea. If we take that out of the equation--there are many younger people (not you and me) that have grown up with computer based entertainment of all kinds. Now that laptops (I'm assuming most people who read want to read on a screen at least as large as the crossection of a print book) are light, thin, and have great screens, I'm surprised more people aren't buying ebooks. As a use-case: Imagine a young person who plays video games on their laptop; then starts reading game or movie related books on their laptop; finally, having developed the habit,they mature to better books. I would imagine SF and especially Fantasy would benifit from this senario.


    However, I'm willing toadmit it hasn't happened--the numbers bear that out. I'm wondering what part of my assumption is wrong.



    http://www.speculativefictionreview.com

  6. #6

    Default

    Specfiction said...
    I agree with you on DRM--bad idea. If we take that out of the equation--there are many younger people (not you and me) that have grown up with computer based entertainment of all kinds. Now that laptops (I'm assuming most people who read want to read on a screen at least as large as the crossection of a print book) are light, thin, and have great screens, I'm surprised more people aren't buying ebooks. As a use-case: Imagine a young person who plays video games on their laptop; then starts reading game or movie related books on their laptop; finally, having developed the habit, they mature to better books. I would imagine SF and especially Fantasy would benifit from this senario.

    However, I'm willing to admit it hasn't happened--the numbers bear that out. I'm wondering what part of my assumption is wrong.
    The part of your assumption that is wrong, is the assumption that the younger generation will 'read' at all. By and large, they don't.

    You put the e-book into an animated, audio/visual experience, you'll see them fly of the shelves. Stick with text, they'll be passed up.

    Are you by chance familiar with what muds/mushes/moos are?

    Never meddle in the affairs of a wizard unless you are soggy and hard to light!

    Visit my art gallery on art wanted at
    http://artwanted.com/crystalwizard

    All my books in print:
    http://sojourn.omnitech.net

  7. Default

    CrystalW said...
    The part of your assumption that is wrong, is the assumption that the younger generation will 'read' at all.
    You may be right, although I'd like to see some numbers from a reliable source. But assuming you are right, this country is in real trouble. There is no other experience that compares to reading for the depth of intellectual exploration. All the audio/visual stuff is like eating candy--may taste good going down, but is of little nutritional value.


    http://www.speculativefictionreview.com

  8. #8

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    I can't give you numbers. I can only give you personal experience. Perhaps it would be a good research subject for you to look into?

    Never meddle in the affairs of a wizard unless you are soggy and hard to light!

    Visit my art gallery on art wanted at
    http://artwanted.com/crystalwizard

    All my books in print:
    http://sojourn.omnitech.net

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    I don't see them playing video games on their lap-tops. I see them playing them on Daddy's big screen TV. The younger people I know seem to skip right over laptops to phones with internet connections, so they can e-mail pictures of themselves to their friends (and total strangers), but they play few games (not none, few) on them and screens are tiny. I doubt you could read a long letter on one, let alone a novel.
    Mike (who doesn't even own a cell phone)

    Michael D. Turner
    'Psyched Up' in _Turn the other Chick_-ed. E. Friesner-Baen books
    www.baen.com
    'Dutchman Rescue'in Continuum SF #6
    www.continuumsciencefiction.com/orders.htm

    'An Incident at Black Tongue Tavern' in _Bash Down the Door and Slice Open the Badguy_ from Fantasist Enterprises:
    www.fantasistent.com/books/anthologies/BASH.php

  10. Default




    Some interesting Stats:
    1/3 of high school graduates never read another book for the rest of their lives.

    42 percent of college graduates never read another book after college.

    80 percent of U.S. families did not buy or read a book last year.

    70 percent of U.S. adults have not been in a bookstore in the last five years.

    57 percent of new books are not read to completion.

    70 percent of books published do not earn back their advance.

    70 percent of the books published do not make a profit.


    53 percent read fiction, 43 percent read nonfiction. The favorite fiction category is mystery and suspence, at 19 percent.

    55 percent of fiction is bought by women, 45 percent by men.


    A successful fiction book sells 5,000 copies.

    A successful nonfiction book sells 7,500 copies.

    On average, a bookstore browser spends 8 seconds looking at a book's front cover and 15 seconds looking at the back cover.

    From places like Publishers Weekly...


    http://www.speculativefictionreview.com

  11. #11

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    I've read those stats and I don't think I believe them. I mean, a tell-tale giveaway is that they use the word 'book'. You CAN'T tell me that 42 percent of college grads never read another book, even a non-fiction book again. I mean, certainly that's required for any college level job, after all you have to enhance your skills.

    Again, 'bookstore' is decieving. Does that include online purchases? Libraries? Campus bookstores? And a lot of people buy books in big box stores these days, not 'traditional' bookstores.

    Jordan Lapp

  12. Default

    Jordan Lapp said...
    I've read those stats and I don't think I believe them. I mean, a tell-tale giveaway is that they use the word 'book'. You CAN'T tell me that 42 percent of college grads never read another book, even a non-fiction book again. I mean, certainly that's required for any college level job, after all you have to enhance your skills.
    I don't think that the survey considered ongoing job related education and quite frankly, while I have reference manuals, I don't read books to enhance my job skills, even when the enhancement is mandatory (and yes, it's a college level job). I read and listen to power point presentations, partial day work shops and hand outs. I don't even read the reference manuals, I just look stuff up when I need it. I don't know of anyone else in the same field as I am in that reads books to further education either. We're too busy. We barely have time to read announcements of new technology, flashes and announcements of updates. Books are out of the question.

    Jordan Lapp said...

    Again, 'bookstore' is decieving. Does that include online purchases? Libraries? Campus bookstores? And a lot of people buy books in big box stores these days, not 'traditional' bookstores.
    I'm pretty sure the survey just had traditional, brick and mortar bookstores in mind.

    Never meddle in the affairs of a wizard unless you are soggy and hard to light!

    Visit my art gallery on art wanted at
    http://artwanted.com/crystalwizard

    All my books in print:
    http://sojourn.omnitech.net

  13. Default



    Jordan Lapp said...
    I've read those stats and I don't think I believe them. I mean, a tell-tale giveaway is that they use the word "book". You CAN'T tell me that 42 percent of college grads never read another book, even a non-fiction book again. I mean, certainly that's required for any college level job, after all you have to enhance your skills.

    Again, "bookstore" is decieving. Does that include online purchases? Libraries? Campus bookstores? And a lot of people buy books in big box stores these days, not "traditional" bookstores.

    I don't know if these stats are right or not, but I like your sense of outrage. Scary?--isn't it.


    http://www.speculativefictionreview.com

  14. Default




    I must admit, those statistics do seem rather extreme.As a reader, am I within such a small minority?





    Specfiction said...



    Some interesting Stats:
    1/3 of high school graduates never read another book for the rest of their lives.

    42 percent of college graduates never read another book after college.

    80 percent of U.S. families did not buy or read a book last year.

    70 percent of U.S. adults have not been in a bookstore in the last five years.

    57 percent of new books are not read to completion.

    70 percent of books published do not earn back their advance.

    70 percent of the books published do not make a profit.


    53 percent read fiction, 43 percent read nonfiction. The favorite fiction category is mystery and suspence, at 19 percent.

    55 percent of fiction is bought by women, 45 percent by men.


    A successful fiction book sells 5,000 copies.

    A successful nonfiction book sells 7,500 copies.

    On average, a bookstore browser spends 8 seconds looking at a book's front cover and 15 seconds looking at the back cover.

    From places like Publishers Weekly...


  15. #15

    Default

    Chaos, Perpetual said...
    I must admit, those statistics do seem rather extreme. As a reader, am I within such a small minority?
    Yes.

    Sad, but true.

    I work in a mid-size office for a landscaping company. Out of 40 or so people, only a handful are readers. The Harry Potter books are the only exception. Even the people who read those are very skeptical when I try to recommend other similar books.

    Television and film dominate our culture by a wide, wide margin.

    'To know what is right and not do it is the worst cowardice.' --Confucius

  16. #16

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    Hazimel said...

    Television and film dominate our culture by a wide, wide margin.
    And it's really a terrible thing that they do, because important centers of the brain are not stimulated by passive entertainment. Only reading and writing cause the stimulation those centers need. And those areas of the brain have a lot to do with critical thinking and imagination.

  17. #17

    Default

    This is an interesting thread. I wonder how I missed it before. I clacked along post full of opinion and Jungian dogma -- but I moved that post here.








    Click over at your peril.....


    "Art is the celebration of the ego's destruction."
    Daniel

  18. #18

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    Food for thought:

    Wade, Marcia A.; 2004. "Publishing for Profit: Launching a Magazine Is a Risky Venture. Navigating the Pitfalls Requires Sufficient Advertising, Circulation, Content-And a Bitof Luck" Black Enterprise, Vol. 34.

    Kurtz, Paul.; 1993. "Are We Approaching the End of the Age of Books? Prometheus at Twenty-Five" Free Inquiry, Vol. 14,

    CoserLewis A., Kadushin, Charles, Powell, Walter W. ; 1982. Books: The Culture and Commerce of Publishing; Basic Books.

    Oliver, Sandra M.; 2004; A Handbook of Corporate Communication and Strategic Public Relations: Pure and Applied; Routledge.

    Greco, Albert N. 2004.; The Book Publishing Industry; Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

    Geiser, Elizabeth A.; Dolin,Arnold; Topkis, Gladys S.; 1985. The Business of Book Publishing: Papers by Practitioners, Westview Press.


    Any one of these resources should help to provide an interested party with exceedingly reliable information from professional practicioners on the current and projected future state of both books and book publishing. Print magazines, too.

    All of these resources are available at www.questia.com and you can register for a free trial period at Questia to review the materials free of charge.

    I highly recommend that you do so, if you are interested in knowing what people inside at the very heart of the industry have to say.








    "Art is the celebration of the ego's destruction."
    Daniel

  19. #19

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    Never had someone else volunteer to write the footnotes for one of my essays before.

    Never meddle in the affairs of a wizard unless you are soggy and hard to light!


    <a href="http://flashingswords.sfreader.com" target="_blank">
    Managing Editor of Flashing Swords</a>

    Visit my art gallery on art wanted
    All my books in print

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    I'm going to chime in because the suggestion that younger people won't be reading anything in the near future is incorrect.

    Go to any chat room, like the Yahoo chat rooms...full of younger people.
    Forums covering a huge variety of subjects all over the world are also full of younger people.

    These are young people who probably do not read books...but they read and post on forums and chat rooms every day.
    Reading and writing is reading and writing...it's just not paper communication.
    Live chat and forums also do encourage intelligent thinking, perhaps even more so than reading a novel.
    I haven't read hardly any novels in the last couple of years because I get as much (or more) enjoyment from reading and responding to threads and posts at various forums.
    (Mainly motorcycle related I admit, but hey that's my lifestyle!)
    I also read a lot of webzine's.
    One that I write for www.bikernet.com get's a million or more hits a month from biker's all over the world.
    How many paper magazine's would like to sell a million copies a month?
    And parts of Bikernet are pay to read...and people are paying because Bikernet is reknown as a first class webzine for lovers of custom Harley's and choppers.

    I agree that paper book reading is dropping rapidly...but you've all failed to take into account the price of new paperback and hardback novels.
    Many new hardbacks are selling for anything up to $40 Oz dollars.
    That's a big ask.
    Paperbacks are selling for as high as $24 Oz dollars.
    There is no way in the world I'm going to spend $24 Oz bucks on a paperback book. I don't care who wrote it!
    Not when I can read a webzine for a small fee or free...or chat online or read and post at a forum for free.
    It's a fact that printed books are getting expensive...who can blame younger people for not wanting to buy them?
    When there is so much entertainment available on the internet for free.
    Now it might be different in the USA but here in Oz just about everyone and every family has an internet connection.
    It's been said that Aussies are at the forefront of internet tech, even more than Japan.
    A new computer/internet technology product comes out and Aussies embrace it quicker than anywhere else in the world.
    The writing (pun) is on the wall I'm afraid.
    In years to come I see printed books sales plummeting to an all time low.

    And this will make you laugh...compared to most western countries few adult Aussies read novels or buy printed books...and yet in a recent survey more Aussies spend more time surfing the internet than almost any other country else in the world.

    Strange but true.

    I've never bought or read an e-book myself.
    I haven't bought a printed book unless it's been hugely discounted in recent years.
    Yet I surf the Net and find thousands of interesting sites to read stuff on. Any subject you care to name, from bikes to UFO's to current world events to sci-fi and fantasy.

    From a reading point of view I believe more people are reading than ever...they're just not reading printed books.

    Cheers: Jaqhama.

    You can read some of mystories here:
    Skulkers. Jack be nimble, Jack be quick. RAT's. La Carcajou. Jet Bike Boogie...at www.pulpanddagger.com
    Swamp Story. Down South. Florida Haze.Wild Justice...
    at www.bikernet.com(Plus many of my motorcycle related articles.)
    The Covert OP. Chick Prick...at www.milstory.com

  21. #21

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    Jaqhama said...

    From a reading point of view I believe more people are reading than ever...they're just not reading printed books.

    Cheers: Jaqhama.
    And thus, you prove my point. If the publishing industry is to survive, they are going to have to embrace the electronic format and the fact that everyone that wants to can now easily publish anything.

  22. #22

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    an informal poll done over at nathan bransford blog
    showed that the majority of people still preferred to
    hold a book with pages in their hands.
    of course, no stats on whom the commenters were
    or which generation / age they fall in.

    as for youth not reading, YA MG and kiddie
    books are huge. everyone is writing them,
    and agents are asking for them.
    this in itself doesn't say much but :

    1. publishing is a business. they want to make
    money.
    2. if agents are seeking books for kiddies
    and YA, there must be a market for these books.

    perhaps most people will be reading
    their books on a little screen in the future.
    (how god awful.)

    but i know i won't!

    i agree online publishing and reading may
    be the wave of the future, but there is no way
    that real books would be gone any time soon.
    not until my generation (i'm 35) has passed on
    at least. that gives us another 40 years at least. haha!

    cindy p.
    a little sweet, a little sour.
    http://xiaotien.blogspot.com

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